The neoclouds have spent the last week getting graded on politics. This morning, Nebius finally got to answer with numbers — and the numbers are loud.
The Amsterdam-based AI cloud company reported third-quarter revenue of $981 million, comfortably ahead of the $907.5 million Wall Street expected, according to Reuters. And it didn't stop at the beat: Nebius projected $12 billion to $13 billion in sales for 2027, and said it expects to break even on a pre-tax basis by the end of that year. For a company that has spent 2026 being priced as a financing risk, that is the closest thing to a rebuttal it can put in a press release.
The timing is the point. Democratic governors-elect in Texas, Ohio, and Georgia won last week on platforms that included data-center moratoria, and neocloud stocks dropped roughly 14% in under a week. Nebius shares jumped 17% on Wednesday as CoreWeave raised its own annual forecast — and today's report is the company's chance to show the rally had a foundation. The most telling detail in the release isn't the revenue line: Nebius said customers committed to longer deals at higher prices in the quarter and paid more money up front, with those prepayments covering more than 100% of the capital spending tied to those contracts — data-center construction and networking included. In a sector where the central question is who pays for the buildout, customers paying in advance is the answer Nebius most wanted to give.
Not everything is clean. Nebius held its 2026 revenue forecast at $3 billion to $3.4 billion, which sits slightly below the $3.37 billion midpoint the market expected. And the skeptics haven't gone quiet: Citigroup cut its price target to $265 from $324 last week while keeping its buy rating, and the company still plans to invest $20–25 billion this year. The shares remain well below their 52-week high near $300.
But the shape of the story is shifting. CoreWeave raised its guidance on Tuesday and is targeting adjusted profitability in the first half of 2028; Nebius now has a beat, a 2027 target, and customers funding the buildout before the concrete dries. Watch the 8 a.m. earnings call for what management says about capacity delivery and financing — that's where the neocloud thesis gets proven or punctured. For now, the demand side of the AI infrastructure boom just got a second witness.
— via Reuters